CCMC CME Scoreboard
Prediction for CME (2025-11-10T13:08:00-CME-001)
CME Observed Time: 2025-11-10T13:08ZiSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/42600/-1
CME Note: Seemingly narrow eruption to the N from SOHO LASCO C2/C3 perspective, but appears wider and more to the N/NE in STEREO A COR2's field of view. From STEREO A's perspective, it drifts N as it moves out in the field of view. The source appears to be an eruption associated with filament ejecta visible to the N/NW from AR 14274 around 2025-11-10T12:00Z as seen in GOES SUVI 304. | The arrival of this CME was likely observed at L1 by ACE/DSCOVR around 2025-11-12T18:52Z, characterized by an amplification of magnetic field components with Btotal increasing from 19nT at 2025-11-12T18:52Z to about 40nT at 2025-11-12T19:00Z. The magnetic field parameters were previously enhanced due to the interplanetary shock starting at 2025-11-11T22:11Z. An increase in solar wind speed from about 580 km/s to 820 km/s was observed starting at about 2025-11-12T19:45Z after a brief period of unreliably low solar wind speed data which had occurred during the initial shock arrival. An increase in temperature was seen starting at 2025-11-12T19:45Z from about 71,000 K to about 764,000 K. A significant increase in temperature was observed starting at 2025-11-12T21:55Z, which may have been erroneous or unreliable data. A corresponding sudden increase in density was observed at 2025-11-12T19:41Z from about 4 p/cc to a peak value of 24 p/cc at 2025-11-12T19:49Z.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2025-11-12T18:52Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
----
Predicted Arrival Time: 2025-11-13T08:21Z
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 3.5 - 5.5
Prediction Method: Median of all Methods
Prediction Method Note:
This is the auto generated median of all submitted predictions for this CME.Lead Time: 22.38 hour(s)
Difference: -13.48 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Auto Generated (CCMC) on 2025-11-11T20:29Z
CCMC
Rules of the Road: CCMC requests that users notify the CCMC, CME
model/technique developers and submitting forecasters/researchers before
performing event and validation studies with data from the CME Arrival
Time Scoreboard. It is recommended that such studies be performed with
the knowledge and collaboration of developers and submitting
forecasters/researchers.
If you are looking for the official U.S. Government forecast for space weather, please go to NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center (https://swpc.noaa.gov). This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
Curator: Chiu Wiegand | NASA Official: Dr. Masha Kuznetsova | Privacy and Security Notices | Accessibility | CCMC Data Policy